https://socialnetworkpresident.space/pages/view/10800/trump-tariffs-leads-to-marginal-lower-deficit-on-balance-of-trade-but-huge-loss-on-international-in https://socialnetworkpresident.space/pages/view/10800/trump-tariffs-leads-to-marginal-lower-deficit-on-balance-of-trade-but-huge-loss-on-international-in Fri, 18 Sep 2026 04:33:53 -0400 https://socialnetworkpresident.space/pages/view/10800/trump-tariffs-leads-to-marginal-lower-deficit-on-balance-of-trade-but-huge-loss-on-international-in

Aspect	What’s happened under Trump’s politicised tariffs (2025–26)	Net economic effect so far
Trade balance	Goods & services deficit has fallen from unusually high 2024–25 levels, but is still large and only modestly improved.	Slight short‑run narrowing, not a clear structural “fix” to imbalance.
Tariff incidence	80–90% of tariff costs are paid by U.S. importers/consumers, not foreign exporters.	Domestic households and firms bear most of the burden.
Capital flows & risk premium	Markets initially marked U.S. assets as riskier: stocks, bonds, and the dollar fell; scenarios with persistent higher risk show capital flowing away from the U.S.	If risk premium stays elevated, international capital migrates out of the U.S., not in.
Growth & wages	Long‑run modelling projects ~6% lower GDP and ~5% lower wages versus baseline.	Tariffs act as a heavy drag on growth and income.
China decoupling	Tariffs have clearly reduced China’s share of U.S. imports and raised customs revenue.	Effective for decoupling and revenue, not clearly for overall trade balance.

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