​Conversely, independent economic research institutions (like the Yale Budget Lab, Brookings Institution, and the Tax Foundation) view the broader data much more skeptically. They argue that while tariffs protect specific factories, they create a net negative drag on the wider economy.

• ​Rising Costs for Other Manufacturers: A tariff on foreign steel protects U.S. steel mills, but it acts as a punishing tax on domestic companies that buy steel to make things. Research from mid-2025 to 2026 shows that the U.S. construction, automotive, and machinery manufacturing subsectors faced input cost increases of up to 4% to 6.4%, stalling their own growth and investments.

• ​The "Zero Sum" Aggregate Effect: A 2026 Brookings paper noted that while the 2025 tariffs raised trade protectionism to an 80-year high (an effective rate of roughly 9.6%), the aggregate impact on U.S. GDP has been negligible to slightly negative (-0.1% to 0.1%). The gains made by protected domestic producers were mathematically wiped out by the higher costs paid by U.S. importers and consumers.

• ​The Trade Deficit Remains Stubborn: Much like the historical tariffs of 1930 (Smoot-Hawley), the current tariffs have not significantly altered the overall U.S. merchandise trade deficit, which actually rose modestly in 2025.

​3. The Wildcard: Unprecedented Policy Uncertainty

​The primary reason the current era hasn't triggered a definitive 1930s-style global depression—nor a complete, clean domestic manufacturing boom—is legal and policy volatility.

​In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the administration's initial 2025 tariffs (imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act), forcing the government to plan roughly $130 billion to $165 billion in refunds to importers. The administration immediately responded by pivoting to a new 15% global tariff under a different statute (Section 122).

​This constant legal back-and-forth has created a climate of deep uncertainty. Many corporations are hesitating to build multi-billion dollar factories because they don't know if the tariffs protecting them will still be legal or active two years from now.

​Summary Verdict

​Have the tariffs failed? Not entirely. Unlike the 1930s, they have successfully decoupled key sectors from China and forced historic domestic investment commitments from tech giants like Apple.

​Have they triggered a definitive, healthy manufacturing shift? Not yet. The localized gains in steel or tech assembly are currently being offset by higher material costs for other domestic businesses, inflation pass-through to consumers, and immense legal instability.