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🌡️ Seasonal pattern: what the data shows
- Warm‑weather increase — Sexual assaults (both indoors and outdoors) rise as temperatures move from cool → warm.   
- Summer peak — Assault rates are higher in summer than winter in most regions.   
- Extreme heat effect — On very hot days, outdoor non‑domestic assaults drop because people move indoors, but sexual assaults still rise in warm conditions before flattening in extreme heat.

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🧠 Why does sexual violence rise in warm weather?
- Irritability and aggression — Heat causes discomfort, poor sleep, dehydration, and irritability, increasing aggression.   
- More social activity — Longer days, more drinking, more time in public spaces.  
- Opportunity effects — More people outside and interacting increases opportunities for offenders.

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🏙️ Specifically for public sexual violence
The study covering nearly 1 million incidents in NSW found:  
- Outdoor sexual assaults increase in warm weather.  
- They decline only on extreme‑heat days, when people retreat indoors.  
- Winter shows lower rates overall.  

So the pattern is:  
Winter < Summer (warm) → Peak in warm weather → Slight drop in extreme heat

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📌 Bottom line
Sexual violence in public is higher in summer and warm weather than in winter, with the highest risk occurring during warm but not extreme‑heat conditions.

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If you want, I can break down public vs private sexual violence patterns or seasonal crime trends in Sydney specifically.